Tesla Valuation Calculator

Use our process and your assumptions to help you focus on what is important. Click through to starting calculating or scroll down to understand our thinking.

Tesla Automotive Valuation

Tesla is one of the largest positions in our Global Fund, and we are excited about the long term investment opportunity. As part of our investment process, we identify the fundamental variables most important for determining long term value, called the Key Value Drivers. We think deeply about what these variables might be in 5 years, 10 years, and beyond. By focusing on these Key Value Drivers, we are able to block out the noise, and focus on what matters for long term investors. This calculator takes you through these Key Value Drivers, allows you to insert your own assumptions, and see how that affects the valuation.

  • Tesla is on track to deliver approximately 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. They have the Cybertruck launching and a more affordable model expected to compete with.

  • The Gross Profit Margin was 29% in 2022, but dropped to under 20% in 2023 due to price cuts. As with all manufacturing companies, as the company scales up its manufacturing, the Gross Profit Margin should also increase.

  • Currently, the average selling price of a Tesla is approximately $48,000. However, they will be releasing a mass market vehicle likely to compete with more affordable vehicles like the Toyota Corolla.

  • Full Self Driving is a feature for sale only in approved jurisdictions and today, only ~7% of Tesla vehicles are paying users.

  • Today, it costs $15,000.

  • Historically, Tesla has spent ~10% of revenues on operating expenditures including Research & Development, Sales and Administrative expenses and 5-10% of revenues on capital expenditures for plant development etc.

Disclaimer

This note has been prepared by ELM Responsible Investments (‘ELMRI’) ABN 70 607 177 711 AFSL 520428, for Australian wholesale clients for the purposes of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

The information is not intended for general distribution or publication and must be retained in a confidential manner. Information contained herein consists of confidential proprietary information constituting the sole property of ELMRI and its investment activities; its use is restricted accordingly.

This note is for general informational purposes only and does not purport to be comprehensive or to give advice. The views expressed are the views of the writer at the time of preparation and presenting and all forecasts, assumptions, opinions, data and other information are not warranted as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without notice. This is not an offer document and does not constitute an offer or invitation of investment recommendation to distribute or purchase securities, shares, units or other interests to enter into an investment agreement. No person should rely on the content and/or act on the basis of any material contained in this note. Any potential investor should consider their own circumstances and seek professional advice.

ELMRI funds, its directors, employees, representatives and associates may have an interest in the named securities.

Past performance is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future performance.